Growth is expected to increase from 6.4 percent in 2013 to 7.3 percent in 2014, driven partly by a rebound in oil production and supported by positive effects of reforms in power and higher agriculture production. Inflation should continue to decline, in line with a tight monetary policy and helped by expected policies preserving fiscal consolidation through the ongoing political cycle. The authorities’ 2014–16 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) proposal is consistent with a declining NOPD in 2014 compared with end-2013. 

However, the early start to the 2015 general elections and fiscal performance in previous election cycles suggest uncertainty about the continued implementation of the MTEF and structural reform agenda. Over the medium term, continued progress on fiscal consolidation and the implementation of key structural reforms should lead to a gradual increase in the growth rate and a generally more resilient economy, characterized by a low risk of debt distress.

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